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Will we redirect another asteroid by April 1, 2029?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
33%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Resolves YES if after April 1, 2024 and by the end of April 1, 2029 (UTC), anyone successfully redirects an asteroid.

The DART mission (which took place before the time window for this question) is an example.

It will count as a successful asteroid redirection if the trajectory change is measurable, even if it was different than planned.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters19
VolumeM1.6k

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will we redirect another asteroid by April 1, 2029?
33%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-22

Resolves YES if after April 1, 2024 and by the end of April 1, 2029 (UTC), anyone successfully redirects an asteroid.

The DART mission (which took place before the time window for this question) is an example.

It will count as a successful asteroid...

Last updated: 2025-04-22
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 19
Volume: M1.6k

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