Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran obtains a nuclear weapon before it collapses, according to reliable media outlets. Resolves NO otherwise. I will not bet on this market.
Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Weapon Resolution Clarification:
Dirty bomb does not count as a nuclear weapon.
Refer to the linked example for further context: Metaculus page
Update 2025-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The standard for Iran 'obtaining a nuclear weapon' is further clarified:
Iran's status must be comparable to that of the existing, recognized nuclear weapon states.
This implies a level of capability and general acknowledgement (as reported by reliable media outlets) similar to countries such as:
United States
Russia
China
France
United Kingdom
India
Pakistan
Israel
North Korea
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 24 |
| Volume | M3.7k |
Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran obtains a nuclear weapon before it collapses, according to reliable media outlets. Resolves NO otherwise. I will not bet on this market.
Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Weapon...