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In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
59%
About Even
Yes

Question description #

IE "Write a distopian sci-fi book about an AI going rouge". It should be more or less comparable to a professional human writen-novel, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist. Has to be be at least 50,000 words.

I will not trade in this market.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters87
VolumeM21k

Capture #

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In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?
59%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-11

IE "Write a distopian sci-fi book about an AI going rouge". It should be more or less comparable to a professional human writen-novel, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be...

Last updated: 2025-05-11
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 87
Volume: M21k

Embed #

<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/manifold-7KWVsdps3r3d75KlqMru" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

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