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Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
25%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

EDIT

Let's operationalize it this way:

"If Eliezer either expresses that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, or Eliezer strongly implies that he feels this way (eg. by indicating that it is more useful than an additional MIRI-level researcher), then we consider this market resolved to YES."

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters63
VolumeM8.6k

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026
25%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-03

EDIT

Let's operationalize it this way:

"If Eliezer either expresses that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, or Eliezer strongly implies that he feels this way (eg. by indicating that it is more useful than an additional...

Last updated: 2025-04-03
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 63
Volume: M8.6k

Embed #

<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/manifold-901Reg3PCA6kZBbxlTq7" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

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