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Will we get AGI before 2043?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
83%
Likely
Yes

Question description #

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.

Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2043

Questions with the same criteria:

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@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 (this question)

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048

Related markets:

@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027

@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028

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@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034

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Other questions for 2043:

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-manned-mission-to-s@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-79e7a1611b03

Other reference points for AGI:

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put

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@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters50
VolumeM4.4k

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will we get AGI before 2043?
83%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-02

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is...

Last updated: 2025-06-02
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 50
Volume: M4.4k

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