We aren't currently maintaining Metaforecast. We hope to do so again in the future.
This market predicts whether the margin of victory in Poland's presidential runoff election on June 1, 2025, will be less than 1%. The first round held on May 18, 2025, resulted in a narrow lead for Rafał Trzaskowski over Karol Nawrocki. The market resolves to 'YES' if the official results from the National Electoral Commission show a margin of victory under 1%. Otherwise, it resolves to 'NO'.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 28 |
| Volume | M1.6k |
This market predicts whether the margin of victory in Poland's presidential runoff election on June 1, 2025, will be less than 1%. The first round held on May 18, 2025, resulted in a narrow lead for Rafał Trzaskowski over Karol Nawrocki. The market...