MetaforecastStatus
SearchToolsAbout

‌

‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2070?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
12%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Resolves as YES if there is a Dyson Sphere around the Sun on January 1st 2070, capable of harnessing at least 1% of its power output. This artificial megastructure must at least be distributed in a ring around the Sun (i.e. it cannot be focused as a single or small (<50) finite number of large structures occupying 1% of the available angles), although it does not necessarily need to include other orbits (e.g. polar). If it occupies a ring around the sun, then both a swarm or a single monolithic structure qualify in the context of this question.

Questions with the same criteria:

@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-498a9441b3bf

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-dd5dc0576ff4

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-0b0b9fe48958

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-655a4defd440

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-7ffebd1e0ff5 (this question)

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-082e239054e0

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-897d2cf9e325

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-51d476bf5275

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-d3e1ad8967f8

Other questions:

@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-4fead124a575

Image credits: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dyson_Sphere_Render.png

Image source: Image courtesy of Kevin M. Gill on Flickr, licensed under CC BY 2.0. Available at: https://flickr.com/photos/53460575@N03/29401385502

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters51
VolumeM14k

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2070?
12%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-12

Resolves as YES if there is a Dyson Sphere around the Sun on January 1st 2070, capable of harnessing at least 1% of its power output. This artificial megastructure must at least be distributed in a ring around the Sun (i.e. it cannot be focused as a...

Last updated: 2025-05-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 51
Volume: M14k

Embed #

<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/manifold-9enolxRCGYZu4PTkOqyQ" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

Preview