This market is about whether Pope Leo XIV will openly position himself against Donald Trump and/or the Trump administration in 2025, based on public statements.

Market conditions:

Timeframe

The timeframe for this market is 8 May 2025 to 31 December 2025. Earlier or later statements are not taken into account.

Resolution criteria

Will be resolved YES if Pope Leo XIV issues any public statement that directly and clearly criticizes Donald Trump or the current US government, which includes criticism of high ranking officials like J.D. Vance.

Will be resolved NO if no such direct criticism is issued before EOY.

Vague appeals or general critiques that do not explicitly address Donald Trump or the US government are insufficient for a YES resolution.

Subjective evaluation and trader participation

I will carry out the ruling subjectively, based on verbatim quotes reported in the news and within the framework of these market conditions.

Comments and evidence submitted by traders will be considered. Evidence should ideally consist of a verbatim quote from Pope Leo XIV with reference to the source.

Additional Notes:

I will not trade on this market.