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Will there be a successful asteroid deflection by 2050?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
28%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

This question resolves YES if any space agency/company successfully changes the trajectory of an asteroid, comet, or other natural object in space so as to avoid it impacting a much larger body.

In order to qualify, the deflected object must have had a mass of at least 10^7 kilograms, the body it would otherwise have hit must have a mass of at least 10^19 kilograms, and the counterfactual impact must have been within 50 years of the deflection. The reported probability of impact before the deflection must have been at least 95%, and the reported probability of impact after the deflection must be no greater than 5%.

Another method of mitigating the damage dealt by the impactor, such as slowing it down or shattering it, also qualifies if it meets one or both of these criteria:

The total amount of energy delivered by the impactor was reduced by at least 90%.

No piece of at least 10% of the impactor's original mass makes impact, and no two pieces of at least 3% of its original mass impact within 100km of each other.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters22
VolumeM367

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will there be a successful asteroid deflection by 2050?
28%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-12

This question resolves YES if any space agency/company successfully changes the trajectory of an asteroid, comet, or other natural object in space so as to avoid it impacting a much larger body.

In order to qualify, the deflected object must have...

Last updated: 2025-03-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 22
Volume: M367

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