Israel is widely understood to have 2 goals in its war with Iran: destroying Iran's nuclear program (primary) and regime change (secondary).

The market resolves to YES if either of the following are achieved by December 31, 2025:

Iran's nuclear weapons program is effectively ended, either via the destruction of nuclear sites/scientists or via a nuclear deal.

Iran's regime falls (e.g. in a revolution or military coup).

Some notes:

The first resolution condition is a bit vague, but I will resolve based on the consensus of reputable US and Israeli media whether or not Iran's nuclear weapons program is considered to be effectively nonexistent. One possible resolution would be a consensus that it will take at least a decade to rebuild the nuclear program to a pre-war capacity.

A change in leadership is not enough to resolve the second condition (e.g. death of ayatollah). It must be a change in regime.

Any nuclear deal that Israel views as insufficiently restraining Iran's ability to get a nuclear weapon (like the JCPOA) does not resolve to yes.

This market resolves whether the aims are achieved directly by Israel or not.

Update 2025-06-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that due to the potential ambiguity of the resolution, they will not bet on this market.