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Will there be an AI Winter by the end of 2025?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
10%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

The release of GPT-4 in recent months have generated lots of enthusiasm for AI research, as well as fears of impending AI doom. But how sustainable is it really, and is it just simply another hype cycle that will soon fizzle out?

Will settle "Yes" if an AI Winter is confirmed to have occurred before January 1st, 2026, defined by a substantial decrease in both enthusiasm/interest for AI, followed by a subsequent decrease in funding for AI research. Else it will resolve as "No".

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters56
VolumeM6.5k

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will there be an AI Winter by the end of 2025?
10%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-18

The release of GPT-4 in recent months have generated lots of enthusiasm for AI research, as well as fears of impending AI doom. But how sustainable is it really, and is it just simply another hype cycle that will soon fizzle out?

Will settle "Yes"...

Last updated: 2025-06-18
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 56
Volume: M6.5k

Embed #

<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/manifold-B0fvNYdBA244XGygHrCh" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

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