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Will Trump declare federal Martial Law in the US before 2029 (given a 2025 presidency)?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
34%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Martial Law following definitions laid out here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law_in_the_United_States?wprov=sfla1

This question is only about nationwide martial law, not about a local or isolated martial law declaration in one city or one state.

There might be a situation where enough states are in martial law for it to de facto count as federal (e.g. all states of the contiguous United States). I'll let the comment section decide in that edge case.

If trump declares martial law in only words, but doesn't act upon it. E.g. because he's bluffing or no longer in power to do so. Then this does not resolve to a YES (yet)

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters30
VolumeM1.8k

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will Trump declare federal Martial Law in the US before 2029 (given a 2025 presidency)?
34%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-25

Martial Law following definitions laid out here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law_in_the_United_States?wprov=sfla1

This question is only about nationwide martial law, not about a local or isolated martial law declaration in one city or...

Last updated: 2025-05-25
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 30
Volume: M1.8k

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