According to a YouGov poll 52% believe that Trump "definitely" or "probably" will attempt a 3rd term.

Resolves YES if there is clear and unequivocal evidence that Trump:

Runs for a 3rd presidential term

Attempts to subvert the 22nd Amendment in any (serious) way (e.g. through executive orders, trying to change the constitution, legal challenge, or campaigning)

Prevents a peaceful transition of power

Tries in some serious way to stay in power past January 20, 2029

For #2, a subordinate, random republican, or whoever doing so by themselves won't count - unless it is his lawyers presenting a legal challenge, which will resolve to YES. A serious campaign to change it will count, e.g. a mere couple social media posts won't, but a prolonged and serious effort (like that of legally overturning the 2020 election) would.

Resolves NO if none of these happen by Jan 1, 2030.