Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
Public acknowledgement by both sides
Major US government figures declaring a state of active war between the US and Iran
Multiple media outlets reporting on the US-Iran war as actively and sustainably occurring
Other similar events indicating active public prosecution of a full-spectrum conflict
Note: Drum-beating propaganda or symbolic actions will not resolve the question to "yes".
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 73 |
| Volume | M41k |
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
Public acknowledgement by both sides
Major US government figures declaring a state of active war between the US and Iran
Multiple media outlets reporting on the US-Iran...