We aren't currently maintaining Metaforecast. We hope to do so again in the future.
If myself and a romantic partner both estimate our chances that we'll end up trying a life partnership thing, and our estimates average out to 40% or higher, and it's before the end of 2029, then this market will resolve YES.
We don't have to have a 40% or higher estimate at the end of 2029 for this market to resolve YES, it just needs to happen at any point before the end of 2029.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 124 |
| Volume | M8.0k |
If myself and a romantic partner both estimate our chances that we'll end up trying a life partnership thing, and our estimates average out to 40% or higher, and it's before the end of 2029, then this market will resolve YES.
We don't have to have...