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In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
44%
About Even
Yes

Question description #

Resolves positively if Marcus (or someone else fulfilling his role) can find three extremely obvious questions, that an average human teenager could certainly answer, which a leading chatbot still fails at at least half the time when asked.

This won't resolve positively if he has to use bizarre hacking-like tricks, for example things equivalent to the SolidGoldMagikarp token.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters348
VolumeM124k

Capture #

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In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
44%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-19

Resolves positively if Marcus (or someone else fulfilling his role) can find three extremely obvious questions, that an average human teenager could certainly answer, which a leading chatbot still fails at at least half the time when asked.

This...

Last updated: 2025-06-19
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 348
Volume: M124k

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<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/manifold-ECme3AJochGsld2MklSG" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

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