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Will Belgium break apart before 2034?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
9%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Belgium has a strict divide between Flandern and Wallonia: Language, Economy, Politics. In the last poll in Flandern, over 30% supported a separation from Wallonia.

Resolves YES if at least 20% of Belgian territory becomes independent or joins either France or the Netherlands or any other country, for any reason before the end of 2033.

Resolves NO otherwise.

Youtube: Why Belgium isn't a real Country

Youtube: Why does Belgium Exist (Short Animated Documentary)

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters18
VolumeM646

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will Belgium break apart before 2034?
9%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-06

Belgium has a strict divide between Flandern and Wallonia: Language, Economy, Politics. In the last poll in Flandern, over 30% supported a separation from Wallonia.

Resolves YES if at least 20% of Belgian territory becomes independent or joins...

Last updated: 2025-06-06
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 18
Volume: M646

Embed #

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