We aren't currently maintaining Metaforecast. We hope to do so again in the future.
Resolution will be based on the ICE annual report for 2025. Resolves Yes if the deportation of illegal immigrants in fiscal year 2025 goes up by 50% compare to the 2023 numbers. (i.e. Resolves Yes if 2025 deportation count is higher than 307,687)
Supplementary details: https://www.ice.gov/news/releases/ice-releases-fiscal-year-2023-annual-report In fiscal year 2023, "ICE ERO’s 142,580 removals and 62,545 Title 42 expulsions to more than 170 countries worldwide", a total of 205,125 deportation of illegal immigrants.
Below are the ICE removal statistics for 2017-2019
https://www.ice.gov/sites/default/files/documents/Document/2019/eroReportFY2019.pdf
[image]Conditional and unconditional markets on illegal immigrants deportation:
[markets]
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 17 |
| Volume | M891 |
Resolution will be based on the ICE annual report for 2025. Resolves Yes if the deportation of illegal immigrants in fiscal year 2025 goes up by 50% compare to the 2023 numbers. (i.e. Resolves Yes if 2025 deportation count is higher than...