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Is Donald Trump more likely to win the presidential election if the US enters a recession by the end of 2024?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description #

This market resolves Yes if these two markets resolve in the same direction:

@/LarsDoucet/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-p@/chrisjbillington/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-20

It resolves "No" if they resolve in opposite directions. In the case of unforeseen strangeness with the specific markets linked, I will resolve based on my own best judgement of if these two things happened or did not happen.

As of market creation, the Trump market is at 40% and the recession market is at 46%.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters18
VolumeM1.4k

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Is Donald Trump more likely to win the presidential election if the US enters a recession by the end of 2024?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-23

This market resolves Yes if these two markets resolve in the same direction:

@/LarsDoucet/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-p@/chrisjbillington/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-20

It resolves "No" if they resolve in opposite directions. In the...

Last updated: 2025-04-23
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 18
Volume: M1.4k

Embed #

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Preview