MetaforecastStatus
SearchToolsAbout

‌

‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌

If someone accepts Eliezer Yudkowsky's offer to write an HPMOR sex scene in return for payment, will he follow through?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
93%
Very likely
Yes

Question description #

See this tweet for the context. (In order for this market to resolve YES, the offer must have followed the terms in that tweet.)

(https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/will-anyone-offer-to-pay-eliezer-yu)Resolves N/A if the above market resolves NO.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters29
VolumeM2.5k

Capture #

Resizable preview:
If someone accepts Eliezer Yudkowsky's offer to write an HPMOR sex scene in return for payment, will he follow through?
93%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-03-29

See this tweet for the context. (In order for this market to resolve YES, the offer must have followed the terms in that tweet.)

(https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/will-anyone-offer-to-pay-eliezer-yu)Resolves N/A if the above market resolves...

Last updated: 2025-03-29
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 29
Volume: M2.5k

Embed #

<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/manifold-GqQg6AJglIO2CBAX9xgN" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

Preview