We aren't currently maintaining Metaforecast. We hope to do so again in the future.
The status of these two markets:
https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned
https://manifold.markets/Duncn/will-trump-spend-any-time-in-prison
imply that the market has a substantial chunk of its probability mass on Trump going under house arrest. The status of this market https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-trump-be-held-under-house-arre confirms this (though currently it is inconsistent with the "when will trump be imprisoned" market).
This market resolves YES if Donald J. Trump is held under house arrest in the United States. It resolves NO if Trump dies or if the USA ceases to exist.
[link preview]
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 18 |
| Volume | M2.6k |
The status of these two markets:
https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned
https://manifold.markets/Duncn/will-trump-spend-any-time-in-prison
imply that the market has a substantial chunk of its probability mass on Trump...