Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declares, by the end of 2025, US Eastern Time, that the US entered a recession at any point in 2023 or 2024. Resolves NO on 2026-01-01 otherwise.
For a derivative market that resolves sooner, based on how this market is priced at the end of 2024, see:
@/chrisjbillington/will-manifold-price-a-2024-us-reces
Update 2025-16-01 (PST): - Market now resolves NO at the end of 2025 if no recession is retrospectively declared before then. (AI summary of creator comment)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 1.5k |
| Volume | M1766k |
Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declares, by the end of 2025, US Eastern Time, that the US entered a recession at any point in 2023 or 2024. Resolves NO on 2026-01-01 otherwise.
For a derivative market that resolves sooner,...