This market resolves YES if the AfD still recognizably exists in 2030. If it rebrands but otherwise retains similar enough structures, this resolves YES. If the party splits, but there remains a recognizable core AfD, this resolves YES.
If the party is banned and dissolved or if it dissolves itself or if it breaks up to become unrecognizable, this resolves NO
Related market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Symmetry/will-the-afd-assume-governmental-re)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 26 |
| Volume | M1.9k |
This market resolves YES if the AfD still recognizably exists in 2030. If it rebrands but otherwise retains similar enough structures, this resolves YES. If the party splits, but there remains a recognizable core AfD, this resolves YES.
If the party...