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Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2026?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
4%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Narva is a city in Estonia close to the Russian border whose inhabitants are mostly ethnic Russians (87%) who almost all speak Russian (96%) and many of whom even have Russian citizenship (36%).

[image]Some experts believe Russia might militarily seize Narva in a Crimea-style operation to stress test NATO.

Will Russia militarily seize Narva before the end of 2026?

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Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters14
VolumeM994

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2026?
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-28

Narva is a city in Estonia close to the Russian border whose inhabitants are mostly ethnic Russians (87%) who almost all speak Russian (96%) and many of whom even have Russian citizenship (36%).

[image]Some experts believe Russia might militarily...

Last updated: 2025-05-28
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M994

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