The market resolves YES if I am alive at January 1, 2026
The market resolves NO if I am dead by January 1, 2026, whether by suicide or other reasons.
This market resolves INDETERMINATE if I become Schodinger's human.
Context:
I am highly suicidal. I have been bribed with $9,000 donated to the Against Malaria Foundation (equivalent to 2 lives) in exchange for me living to 18 (November 5, 2023), which I think is fairly likely.
A large reason for my suicidality is my abusive parents. Many people think that after I move out of their house, I will want to live.
My personal views on this:
Outside view says yes, I will survive to this date.
Inside view says I can't really imagine being happy.
If I'm happy enough that I value life over death, or that my suffering is minor enough that I'm willing to live for the sake of other people, then I will likely live.
Keep in mind though that I may take more risks than the average person, so my risk of accidental death is likely higher, although I don't think that factors significantly into the probability.
VOTE
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 84 |
| Volume | M7.4k |
The market resolves YES if I am alive at January 1, 2026
The market resolves NO if I am dead by January 1, 2026, whether by suicide or other reasons.
This market resolves INDETERMINATE if I become Schodinger's human.
Context:
I am highly suicidal..