Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight.
This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years). The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 110 |
| Volume | M19k |
Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight.
This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years). The time period is...