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Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number before 2026?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
88%
Likely
Yes

Question description #

Background: A 2019 paper showed the IBM Q System One was able to factor 15 and 21, but unable to factor 35 due to accumulating errors. Will a quantum computer factor a number greater than 31 by 2026?

Must use a non-classical algorithm like Quantum Fourier Transform/Shor's Algorithm to count, and without pre-compilation.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters32
VolumeM3.4k

Capture #

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Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number before 2026?
88%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-02

Background: A 2019 paper showed the IBM Q System One was able to factor 15 and 21, but unable to factor 35 due to accumulating errors. Will a quantum computer factor a number greater than 31 by 2026?

Must use a non-classical algorithm like Quantum...

Last updated: 2025-05-02
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 32
Volume: M3.4k

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