We aren't currently maintaining Metaforecast. We hope to do so again in the future.
Resolves N/A if Trump never goes to prison or is under house arrest post-conviction.
Resolves NO if Trump serves prison time post-conviction.
Resolves YES if Trump serves house arrest post-conviciton but NOT prison time.
This is meant to tease apart the differences between markets like the following: https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned
https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-trump-spend-any-time-in-prison
https://manifold.markets/cy/will-donald-trump-serve-any-prison
https://manifold.markets/DhruvRaghavan/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-pri
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 19 |
| Volume | M1.0k |
Resolves N/A if Trump never goes to prison or is under house arrest post-conviction.
Resolves NO if Trump serves prison time post-conviction.
Resolves YES if Trump serves house arrest post-conviciton but NOT prison time.
This is meant to tease...