We aren't currently maintaining Metaforecast. We hope to do so again in the future.
By AI, we mean: any threat, disaster, or attack that is substantially of AI/ML origin, control, influence - or is at the heart of cause for declaring an emergency.
This could include a major data breach or loss of digital services due to an attack using AI. It could include a AI drone swarm attack. It could include prolific creation and spread of misinformation generated by AI.
The AI involved does not be controlled by a person, state, or organisation. It does not need to be a sophisticated model, architecture, etc. for this question to resolve.
To resolve, a nation in NATO or the EU at the time must declare a state of emergency due to a threat, disaster or attack substantively caused, powered or enabled by AI.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 28 |
| Volume | M812 |
By AI, we mean: any threat, disaster, or attack that is substantially of AI/ML origin, control, influence - or is at the heart of cause for declaring an emergency.
This could include a major data breach or loss of digital services due to an attack...