Resolves NO if at any point before Jan 21st, 2029 independence of the Federal Reserve has been reduced. I'm open to refining resolution criteria until Trump's inauguration on Jan 21st 2025.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1854783747264012792

Elon Musk has endorsed US Senator Mike Lee's call to end the Federal Reserve and give the president direct control over monetary policy.

I will not bet on this market.

Update 2025-04-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Major red line: any formal action by the US government that intervenes in Fed decision-making or major Fed staffing in an unprecedented way.

Example: firing the Fed Chair (e.g., Jerome Powell) before their term ends.

Update 2025-04-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional trigger for NO

Application of Supreme Court ruling to Fed staffing: If the Wilcox ruling is found to apply to Federal Reserve staffing decisions (for example, using it to fire the Fed Chair before their term ends), this market will resolve NO.