MetaforecastStatus
SearchToolsAbout

‌

‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌

Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
32%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Narva is a city in Estonia close to the Russian border whose inhabitants are mostly ethnic Russians (87%) who almost all speak Russian (96%) and many of whom even have Russian citizenship (36%).

[image]Some experts believe Russia might militarily seize Narva in a Crimea-style operation to stress test NATO.

Will Russia militarily seize Narva before 2030?

See this question but for other years:

@/cash/will-russia-militarily-seize-narva

@/cash/will-russia-militarily-seize-narva-OIptE5cPpP

@/cash/will-russia-militarily-seize-narva-5L9yU0Uth9

@/cash/will-russia-militarily-seize-narva-qdzgI9hyyh

@/cash/will-russia-militarily-seize-narva-zhpARU9dsL (this question)

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters39
VolumeM5.1k

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?
32%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-05

Narva is a city in Estonia close to the Russian border whose inhabitants are mostly ethnic Russians (87%) who almost all speak Russian (96%) and many of whom even have Russian citizenship (36%).

[image]Some experts believe Russia might militarily...

Last updated: 2025-05-05
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 39
Volume: M5.1k

Embed #

<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/manifold-OyqxrYfpiiOqUPWwdoNm" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

Preview