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Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
49%
About Even
Yes

Question description #

This is comparing accuracy of the AI model vs Manifold users on a 'benchmark' selection of objective markets'.

Inspired by the Autocast competition: https://forecasting.mlsafety.org/

Close date updated to 2026-01-01 12:59 am

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters68
VolumeM4.7k

Capture #

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Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?
49%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-05

This is comparing accuracy of the AI model vs Manifold users on a 'benchmark' selection of objective markets'.

Inspired by the Autocast competition: https://forecasting.mlsafety.org/

Close date updated to 2026-01-01 12:59 am

Last updated: 2025-05-05
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 68
Volume: M4.7k

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<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/manifold-PF61hKYJnonHrgjlH4U1" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

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