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In 2038, will a movie be able to generate a high-quality AI to a prompt?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
70%
Likely
Yes

Question description #

Movie = Any interactive experience that can be considered a continuation or successor to 20th and early 21st century movies High-quality AI = at least as capable as ChatGPT 4 or DALL·E 3

Prompt = Any command, verbal, written or neural

Suppose there are interactive movie-like experiences, where the viewer can influence what happens (like Netflix's Bandersnatch but good).

The market resolves YES if, in the course of such experience, the consumer can prompt a high quality AI into being and ask or have characters ask it things. The consumer must be able to specify the nature of the AI in a variety of ways. For example, any of the following prompts should work:

a chatbot similar to ChatGPT 3.5

image generating AI that only draws animals

ChatGPT 4 but super skilled in mathematics

It must be the consumer of the movie who has the AI created and not the producers, It does not matter how the movie goes about implementing this, it is fine if it just pretends to be the AI requested as long as it does it well.

See also:

@/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters12
VolumeM284

Capture #

Resizable preview:
In 2038, will a movie be able to generate a high-quality AI to a prompt?
70%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-03-28

Movie = Any interactive experience that can be considered a continuation or successor to 20th and early 21st century movies High-quality AI = at least as capable as ChatGPT 4 or DALL·E 3

Prompt = Any command, verbal, written or neural

Suppose there...

Last updated: 2025-03-28
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 12
Volume: M284

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