The Trump administration has indicated that it could attack Mexican cartels, including the use of drone strikes. Will this happen?

This market resolves to YES if, before January 1, 2029:

The United States military or intelligence agencies (CIA, etc.) conduct at least one drone strike targeting suspected cartel members, facilities, or operations on Mexican soil

The strike must be officially acknowledged by the U.S. government or verified by multiple credible news sources

The target must be specifically related to cartel activities (drug trafficking, organized crime)

This market resolves to NO if no such drone strike occurs before January 1, 2029.

Drone surveillance operations, which are already occurring with Mexico's permission, do not count as strikes

Military operations conducted by Mexican forces with U.S. intelligence support would not count

Joint operations would count only if U.S. forces directly conduct the strike