Will resolve "yes" if a recession at any time during Trump's second term. A recession is defined as EITHER i) 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative OR ii) a recession of at least 6 months in length is declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). This will be at any time during Trump's term, so if the two quarter or 6 months occurs at any time up to January 20, 2029. Estimates and NBER declarations can lag up to a year, so if it doesn't occur beforehand and there is any possibility or debate of it occurring at the end of the term, will allow for up to a year after inauguration for declaration. If any estimates are revised, the initial ones are what will count (so we don't have to adjust payouts).