We aren't currently maintaining Metaforecast. We hope to do so again in the future.
Resolves YES. if Sam Altman is CEO of OpenAI at 11:59PM PT December 31, 2025. If he leaves and returns before EOY this still resolves YES.
Update 2025-02-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definition of OpenAI in the context of the market:
Simple renaming: A straightforward renaming of the organization will count as OpenAI.
Mild restructure with renaming: If the rebranding is accompanied by only a mild restructuring, it almost certainly counts as OpenAI.
Large restructure: If the organization undergoes a significant restructure that leads to substantial or widespread disagreement about what constitutes "OpenAI," this could cause the market to resolve as NO even if Sam Altman remains CEO.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 37 |
| Volume | M17k |
Resolves YES. if Sam Altman is CEO of OpenAI at 11:59PM PT December 31, 2025. If he leaves and returns before EOY this still resolves YES.
Update 2025-02-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definition of OpenAI in the context of the...