We aren't currently maintaining Metaforecast. We hope to do so again in the future.
Update 2025-03-18 (PST): • Arrest without an indictment qualifies as a YES.
• Detainment is required for a YES; if Trump issues a bench warrant but does not detain, it resolves as a NO.
• If someone is formally charged but not arrested by the end of Trump's term (e.g. due to fleeing, dying, or dropped charges), it resolves as a NO.
• In cases where someone whose pardon was revoked is detained without a formal charge or trial, the resolution will be determined using a good faith interpretation based on hypothetical media reporting or an explicit claim by Trump. (AI summary of creator comment)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 36 |
| Volume | M1.5k |
Update 2025-03-18 (PST): • Arrest without an indictment qualifies as a YES.
• Detainment is required for a YES; if Trump issues a bench warrant but does not detain, it resolves as a NO.
• If someone is formally charged but not arrested by the end...