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Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
86%
Likely
Yes

Question description #

There are no restrictions on the amount or kind of compute used to train the model. Question is about whether it will actually be done, not whether it will be possible in theory. If I judge the model to really be many specific models stuck together to look like one general model it will not count.

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IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters29
VolumeM3.9k

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Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?
86%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-04-16

There are no restrictions on the amount or kind of compute used to train the model. Question is about whether it will actually be done, not whether it will be possible in theory. If I judge the model to really be many specific models stuck together...

Last updated: 2025-04-16
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 29
Volume: M3.9k

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<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/manifold-SW6uod7AN4juLF9xeOxs" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

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