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Will Vanguard bring a Bitcoin ETF to market before Jan 1 2030?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
21%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Vanguard and Bitcoin mean what a reasonable person thinks they mean. Brings to market is “This can be purchased through at least one discount brokerage in the U.S. on any day before this times out.” I expect resolution to be utterly unambiguous.

This market mirrors a Twitter-based gentleman’s wager between Patio11 and Mike Dudas but resolution is based on ground truth not that wager.

https://x.com/patio11/status/1745510066281656574?s=46&t=NAASaDpWsx9Lm3_OYE2hCQ

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters101
VolumeM33k

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will Vanguard bring a Bitcoin ETF to market before Jan 1 2030?
21%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-14

Vanguard and Bitcoin mean what a reasonable person thinks they mean. Brings to market is “This can be purchased through at least one discount brokerage in the U.S. on any day before this times out.” I expect resolution to be utterly unambiguous..

Last updated: 2025-06-14
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 101
Volume: M33k

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