Will historians place the beginning of WW3 in 2023 or earlier? In the event that there is major disagreement about the start, resolves yes if at least 2 of the 5 most-cited answers place the start date in or prior to 2023.

Resolves in 2040 or five years after the clear end of WW3, whichever happens first. Resolves no if either no WW3 has been acknowledged to have occurred by then, or if the start date by at least 4 of the 5 most-cited answers as of 2040 say it began in 2024 or later.