The market will resolve as “Yes” if there is a general consensus among experts that sentience has been created in a non-biological substrate by the end of 2030.

I will interpret "consensus" as roughly 90%+ agreement among experts. "Experts" for these purposes will likely include human philosophers, neuroscientists, and anyone else that is among the most knowledgeable in the world about the subject at the time. I will define "sentience" as the ability to perceive and feel things.

I may bet in this market.