We aren't currently maintaining Metaforecast. We hope to do so again in the future.
Will continuing progress in AI capabilities result in the existence of a general artificial intelligence which has a "room temperature" IQ score of 68-77 according to the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale?
The AI must be a "general intelligence" according to expert consensus. It needs to be able to take the test repeatedly and be consistently given a score between 68-77, not higher or lower.
Resolves YES if these criteria are met by the beginning of 2027, or NO if they are not. I will not trade in this market.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 21 |
| Volume | M961 |
Will continuing progress in AI capabilities result in the existence of a general artificial intelligence which has a "room temperature" IQ score of 68-77 according to the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale?
The AI must be a "general intelligence"...