This question resolves as Yes if Nvidia's stock outperforms the S&P 500 in the second half of 2025. If its return is less than or equal to that of the S&P 500, this question resolves as No.
The resolution sources are:
The Yahoo Finance history page for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA).
The Yahoo Finance history for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY).
Each stock's return for Jul 1 - Dec 31 (incl.) 2025 will be calculated by taking its adjusted close at Yahoo Finance on 12/1/25, dividing it by the adjusted close price for 6/30/25, subtracting 1 and then multiplying by 100%. For example:
In the final trading day of 2024, Nvidia's adj. close price was $134.29. Its adj. close price on the final trading day of 2023 was $49.51. Its return for the year was 171.2%
In the final trading day of 2024, SPY's adj. close price was $586.08. Its adj. close price on the final trading day of 2023 was $469.29. Its return for the year was 24.9%
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 12 |
| Volume | M159 |
This question resolves as Yes if Nvidia's stock outperforms the S&P 500 in the second half of 2025. If its return is less than or equal to that of the S&P 500, this question resolves as No.
The resolution sources are:
The Yahoo Finance history...