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Will China have the best open LLM at EOY?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
58%
About Even
Yes

Question description #

based on https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard

Resolves YES if the open model with the highest Elo at EOY is from a Chinese lab.

Update 2025-03-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Clarification:

Method: The outcome will be determined using lmarena's designation.

Definition: An LLM is considered open if it is listed as something other than 'proprietary'.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters112
VolumeM28k

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will China have the best open LLM at EOY?
58%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-17

based on https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard

Resolves YES if the open model with the highest Elo at EOY is from a Chinese lab.

Update 2025-03-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Clarification:

Method: The outcome will be determined...

Last updated: 2025-06-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 112
Volume: M28k

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<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/manifold-UuUUu5nRZc" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

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