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Did OpenAI make a breakthrough in Q* learning dramatically shortening AGI timelines?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
22%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Will resolve true if evidence shows that before Sam Altman was fired, OpenAI made a breakthrough in combining Q* learning with LLMs that led to discontinuous capabilities advance.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters11
VolumeM274

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Did OpenAI make a breakthrough in Q* learning dramatically shortening AGI timelines?
22%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-24

Will resolve true if evidence shows that before Sam Altman was fired, OpenAI made a breakthrough in combining Q* learning with LLMs that led to discontinuous capabilities advance.

Last updated: 2025-03-24
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M274

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<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/manifold-VXW6JLcNF3Trs6sTBL1J" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

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