We aren't currently maintaining Metaforecast. We hope to do so again in the future.
When GPT5 comes out, lists its capabilities according to all quantifiable metrics, and compare that to the same for GPT4 and GPT3.
If Capabilities(GPT5-GPT4) < Capabilities(GPT4-GPT3), this market resolves YES.
Otherwise, this market resolves NO.
This is regardless of whether there are diminishing returns in the cost required to get from GPT4 to GPT5.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 71 |
| Volume | M4.7k |
When GPT5 comes out, lists its capabilities according to all quantifiable metrics, and compare that to the same for GPT4 and GPT3.
If Capabilities(GPT5-GPT4) < Capabilities(GPT4-GPT3), this market resolves YES.
Otherwise, this market resolves NO..