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Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
92%
Very likely
Yes

Question description #

"Entry level" is deliberately fuzzy: in 2022 terms this would look like an AI (or AIs) that is assigned an issue, checks out code, makes edits, and submits a PR (that is accepted).

Rough criteria: the AI acts with little oversight, performs similar (coding) work to entry-level coders at the time, the issue/task assignment is not significantly specialized for an AI (e.g. no full technical specs if the same wouldn't be given to a human coder)

AI being used in this way in significant open source projects counts as "industry use".

If there are technical demos of such AIs but none of them are actually being used question resolves as no.

No requirement that it be a single model. A group of specialized models working together counts.

If superhuman performance is not achieved by market end, resolves N/A.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters15
VolumeM558

Capture #

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Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?
92%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-04-04

"Entry level" is deliberately fuzzy: in 2022 terms this would look like an AI (or AIs) that is assigned an issue, checks out code, makes edits, and submits a PR (that is accepted).

Rough criteria: the AI acts with little oversight, performs similar...

Last updated: 2025-04-04
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 15
Volume: M558

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