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How many seconds will Sora take to generate 10 seconds of video?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
84%
Likely
Yes

Question description #

When I get access to Sora, I will generate a 10 second video at 1080p resolution. The market will resolve to X%, where X is the number of seconds between the moment I press the "generate" button to the moment I can start playing the video. If it takes >100 seconds, this market resolves to 100%.

If I can't generate exactly 10 seconds of video, I will try to generate somewhere between 9 and 11 seconds. If I can't generate the video at 1080p, I will generate it at a resolution with somewhere between 80-125% of 1920x1080 (2,073,600) pixels. If I can't do either of these, I will wait until I can to resolve this market.

I will use the following prompt:

"A stylish woman walks down a Tokyo street filled with warm glowing neon and animated city signage. She wears a black leather jacket, a long red dress, and black boots, and carries a black purse. She wears sunglasses and red lipstick. She walks confidently and casually. The street is damp and reflective, creating a mirror effect of the colorful lights. Many pedestrians walk about."

EDIT: clarified that "if it takes >100 seconds, this market resolves to 100%." Also clarified that I will try to generate video at 1080p resolution.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): The creator will accept a screen recording from anyone with access to Sora showing the generation of a video matching the specified criteria. Otherwise, they will wait until they can personally generate a video at the required specifications.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters20
VolumeM1.6k

Capture #

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How many seconds will Sora take to generate 10 seconds of video?
84%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-07

When I get access to Sora, I will generate a 10 second video at 1080p resolution. The market will resolve to X%, where X is the number of seconds between the moment I press the "generate" button to the moment I can start playing the video. If it...

Last updated: 2025-05-07
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 20
Volume: M1.6k

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