We aren't currently maintaining Metaforecast. We hope to do so again in the future.
Resolves to the percentage reported by the most current publicly available community-wide survey by the end of 2025.
In the 2020 survey, 29% of respondents were non-male:
https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/eas2020-demographics
In the 2022 survey, 34% if respondents were non-male:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/AJDgnPXqZ48eSCjEQ/ea-survey-2022-demographics
Update 2025-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Source: The market will be resolved using the 2024 EA Community survey.
Survey Value: The final percentage is set at 31%.
Condition: This will apply unless someone raises an objection.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 21 |
| Volume | M297 |
Resolves to the percentage reported by the most current publicly available community-wide survey by the end of 2025.
In the 2020 survey, 29% of respondents were non-male:
https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/eas2020-demographics
In the 2022...