Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2030 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1
@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a380452919f1
@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-93a1ac777df5
@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-f5a1947c172a
@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-99b4d79ded14
@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before
@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-0f87d48233f5
@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-02fec46476dd
@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a34a5044ccca
@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5
@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-607391b6e7ff
@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-9594f28b5777
@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-c3873b782b65
@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-8213a4d4f7e6
@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-ca980dd1dca2
@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-719c22dafd13
Numeric market:
@/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors
Other reference points for fusion reactors:
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio
@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-585b179f8ac3
@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ba35c785123c
Other questions for 2030:
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030
@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2030
@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-f0c1a341f8ea
@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-59822776e416
@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa
@/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem-35fc023d619f
@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor
@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440
@/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo-d5d68a482594
Engineering breakeven is defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor#Engineering_breakeven
The fusion reactor must have been built by human civilization or one of its descendants in order to qualify in the context of this question.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 55 |
| Volume | M3.9k |
Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2030 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).
Questions with the same...